With the Senate failing to pass the Republican-backed “skinny” coronavirus relief bill last week, White House and Democratic negotiators will need to retrace their steps and find areas of agreement if they are to craft to help Americans and businesses.
“We compromised last winter,” said top White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow on Friday. “We should be able to do it again.”
Among the measures at stake is a House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday. “I’m optimistic. I do think that we should have an agreement. That’s what we all want.”. “We must strive to find our common ground,”
While The House of Representatives returns to work this week, GOP leadership is guarded about Congress producing a new rescue bill before .
“I can’t predict we are going to get together here in these last two months before the election,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday. “I wish I could tell you we were going to get another package, but it doesn’t look that good right now.”
So, what are the next steps? There are at least five possible scenarios that could play out, depending on what happens next on Capitol Hill. We update this story frequently.
A single comprehensive relief bill could be back on the table
Formal talks for the overarching bill have yet to restart, but the Senate has returned from recess last week and the House of Representatives is scheduled to back to work this week, afterduring the break.
The total cost of the bill is the root disagreement. The White House has hinted it could go up to $1.5 trillion, while the Democrats have come down from their initial $3 trillion proposal to $2.2 trillion, so there has been incremental progress. (The failed Republican bill was estimated at between $300 billion and $650 billion.)
The prognosis of another stimulus bill passing before thefluctuates from day to day. On the campaign trail — digital or in person — it’s expected that the leadership’s coronavirus response will take center stage for candidates at all levels, increasing the political pressure to pass the next wave of aid or at least formulate a failsafe plan.
Here, we present a speculative timeline of dates for when we could see a relief bill passed if talks do resume next week. It draws from Congressional voting schedules and the potential of postponing a planned recess or the House returning early to pass a bill.
When could the stimulus bill pass?
|Senate votes||House votes||President signs|
|Possible timeline if legislation passes in September||Sept. 22||Sept. 23||Sept. 24|
|Sept. 30||Oct. 1||Oct. 2|
|Oct. 6||Oct. 7||Oct. 8|
|Oct. 20||Oct. 21||Oct. 22|
Focused smaller bills could pass instead
Called the Delivering Immediate Relief to America’s Families, Schools and Small Businesses Act, the Senate’s narrower proposal didn’t pass a Senate vote But it does suggest a path forward that delivers coronavirus aid in chunks, possibly sidestepping the partisan flare-ups that have plagued this new stimulus legislation talks, which has dragged on for over a month.
The House presented one of the first of these piecemeal bills seeking to provideahead of an in which many will likely be .
“Let’s do a more targeted bill now,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sept. 6 in support of the GOP skinny bill. “If we need to do more in 30 days, we’ll continue to do more.”
Executive actions could arise instead of, or in addition to, a bill
After talks originally collapsed on Aug. 7, President Donald Trump took unilateral action by signingon Aug. 8. It’s possible more executive actions are coming.
During a news conference on Sept. 4 Trump said the administration might consider another executive action to release $300 billion in stimulus aid in an unused account for Americans, if Congress doesn’t vote to redirect those funds.
Trump’s current COVID-19 relief executive actions address , extending to a lesser degree and until next year.
Relief may go on hold until after the general election
With the Nov. 3 election less than two months away, the atmosphere in Washington could be too politically charged to pass more economic relief bills, and leaders may want to see what happens after the election.
With 470 seats in the US Congress — 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats — up for election in November, any change in majority to the House or Senate, and to the presidency itself, could shift the likelihood of certain laws being passed one way or another.
The government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic is already playing heavily in the campaign at all levels. If a deal isn’t reached soon, the topic of a relief package could very well come up during town halls or debates held in the coming weeks.
No additional action is taken
Unemployment remains at staggeringly high levels and a on the horizon. If no action is taken on a relief package, individual bills or executive orders, it could potentially cause the economy to plunge into , as economists say the damage already done is beginning to mirror the Great Recession of the late 2000s.
For more information, here’sand what to know about the stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.